Key Takeaways

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's imminent ABC interview arrives at a critical juncture for Australian monetary policy. Following cooler-than-expected November inflation data, markets are finely balanced on whether the RBA will hike in February. Traders must listen for Hauser's tone on underlying inflation persistence, the labour market, and the bank's reaction function to monthly CPI prints versus the more comprehensive quarterly data.

AUD Traders Heads Up: Decoding the RBA's Next Move

The Australian dollar is in a state of heightened sensitivity. With the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) first policy meeting of 2024 scheduled for February 2-3, every communication from the central bank carries amplified weight. The scheduled interview of Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser by the ABC "later this morning" is not just another media appearance; it is a crucial data point arriving between a surprising inflation print and the looming rate decision. For AUD/USD, bond, and equity traders, parsing Hauser's language will be essential for gauging near-term policy direction.

The Inflation Conundrum: Headline Relief vs. Core Persistence

Yesterday's November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data presented a mixed bag, perfectly encapsulating the RBA's policy dilemma. The headline numbers offered clear relief: monthly CPI was flat (0.0%), and the annual rate cooled to 3.4% from 3.8%, undershooting market forecasts. This disinflation was significantly driven by transitory factors—aggressive Black Friday discounts on discretionary items and fading post-holiday travel costs.

However, beneath the surface, the picture remains concerning for the inflation-targeting RBA. The bank's preferred core measure, the trimmed mean, rose 0.3% for the month, maintaining an annual rate of 3.2%. This remains stubbornly above the RBA's 2-3% target band. Critically, domestic, services-oriented inflation pressures are proving sticky. Housing costs surged 1.1% in November, propelled by rents and new dwelling prices. Essential costs like food and transport remained elevated, and electricity prices jumped nearly 20% annually after government rebates expired.

This divergence creates a complex narrative. The market's initial reaction—a brief AUD dip followed by stabilization—reflects this uncertainty. Is this the start of a sustained disinflationary trend, or merely a discount-driven pause in a broader battle against entrenched price pressures?

The Labour Market Wildcard

Adding another layer of complexity is the recent labour market data. November saw the largest monthly employment decline since early 2025, a potential signal that the incredibly tight labour market is finally loosening. If sustained, this could alleviate wage-driven inflation pressures, a key concern for the RBA Board. However, one month does not make a trend, and the unemployment rate remains historically low. Hauser's comments on whether the RBA views this as a turning point or a volatility blip will be critical.

What This Means for Traders

For FX and rates traders, the Hauser interview is a high-impact event risk. Positioning and strategy should be adjusted accordingly.

  • AUD/USD Direction: Listen for Hauser's emphasis. If he focuses on the downside surprise in headline CPI and the softening labour market, it will be interpreted as dovish, likely pressuring AUD/USD toward support levels near 0.6650. Conversely, if he stresses the persistence of core inflation, elevated services prices, and the ongoing risk of high inflation expectations, it will be read as hawkish. This could fuel a rally toward 0.6750 as markets price in a higher probability of a February hike.
  • Bond Market Implications: Australian government bond yields, particularly at the short end of the curve, will be highly reactive. A dovish tilt could see yields fall as hike expectations are pared back. A hawkish stance affirming the "risk of another rate hike" could see the yield curve steepen as near-term hike pricing increases.
  • Data Dependence Clues: The most valuable insight may be Hauser's guidance on which data points the RBA prioritizes. The market currently assigns a roughly one-in-three chance of a February hike. Hauser may clarify the relative importance of the monthly CPI indicator (which just printed) versus the more comprehensive December-quarter CPI report due on January 31—just days before the meeting. If he downplays the monthly data, it suggests the February decision is still truly live and dependent on the Q4 number.
  • Tone Over Specifics: Often, it's not *what* is said but *how* it's said. Traders must analyze the Deputy Governor's confidence in the inflation trajectory. Any language expressing heightened vigilance, concern over persistence, or the need for "further assurance" will be market-moving.

Navigating the Policy Crossroads

The RBA finds itself at a classic monetary policy crossroads. One path suggests patience: the headline CPI is falling, the labour market may be cooling, and aggressive tightening already delivered (4.25 percentage points since May 2022) needs time to fully work through the economy. Hiking again in February risks over-tightening and accelerating an economic slowdown.

The other path warns of procrastination: core inflation is still too high, domestic cost pressures in housing and services are resilient, and delaying a necessary hike could allow inflation expectations to become unanchored, requiring even more painful policy later. The board's recentmeeting minutes have consistently emphasized their low tolerance for allowing inflation to return to target more slowly than currently projected.

Forward-Looking Conclusion: A Pivotal Signal Before the Blackout

Andrew Hauser's interview likely represents the final public commentary from a senior RBA official before the bank enters its pre-meeting communications blackout period. As such, it serves as the last opportunity to directly influence market pricing and shape expectations before the February decision.

For traders, the imperative is clear: monitor the interview with a focus on the balance of risks as expressed by the Deputy Governor. The outcome will set the tactical tone for AUD pairs and interest rate markets for the remainder of January. While the December-quarter CPI will have the final say before the meeting, Hauser's framing will determine whether the market enters that data release positioned for a hawkish or dovish surprise. In a market priced for uncertainty, this interview is the key to unlocking the next short-term directional move for the Australian dollar.