Former BitMEX CEO Forecasts Monumental Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Federal Policy

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has issued a bold new prediction for Bitcoin's price trajectory. In his latest market commentary, Hayes forecasts that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by 2026, attributing this potential surge primarily to a new lending facility program recently announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Fed's Role in the Next Crypto Bull Run

Hayes's analysis centers on the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which was established in March 2023 in response to regional banking instability. The program allows financial institutions to borrow funds from the Fed using high-quality securities as collateral at par value, rather than their depressed market value.

Hayes argues that this mechanism effectively creates liquidity that will eventually flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. "The Fed, by backstopping the banking system, is ensuring liquidity remains ample," Hayes stated. "This liquidity has to go somewhere, and Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign store of value, is a prime beneficiary."

A Timeline of Catalysts

Hayes outlined a specific sequence of events he believes will drive Bitcoin's price:

  • 2024-2025: Continued monetary easing and bank utilization of the BTFP, increasing systemic liquidity.
  • 2025: The culmination of the current Bitcoin halving cycle, which historically precedes major bull markets.
  • 2026: The convergence of expansive monetary policy and peak cycle momentum propelling Bitcoin to his $200,000 target.

This prediction places Hayes among the most bullish institutional voices in crypto. It follows a period where he accurately predicted market bottoms and called attention to macroeconomic factors influencing digital asset prices.

Market analysts note that while Hayes's predictions are often extreme, his understanding of macro-finance lends credibility to his thesis. The coming years will test whether Federal Reserve policy can indeed act as the primary rocket fuel for Bitcoin's next record-breaking ascent.